2019 Brandenburg state election

The 2019 Brandenburg state election was held on 1 September 2019 to elect the members of the 7th Landtag of Brandenburg.[1][2] It took place on the same day as the 2019 Saxony state election. The incumbent government of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and The Left, led by Minister-President Dietmar Woidke, was defeated. Both parties suffered significant losses, as did the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Alternative for Germany (AfD) doubled its number of seats and moved into second place. The Greens also made gains, as did the Free Voters.

2019 Brandenburg state election

← 2014 1 September 2019 2024 →

All 88 seats of the Landtag of Brandenburg
45 seats needed for a majority
Turnout1,265,106 (61.3%)
Increase 13.4pp
  First party Second party Third party
  2017-03-19 Dietmar Woidke SPD Parteitag by Olaf Kosinsky-1.jpg Andreas Kalbitz 2016 (2).jpg 2018-12-07 Ingo Senftleben CDU Pateitag in Hamburg-2617 (cropped).jpg
Leader Dietmar Woidke Andreas Kalbitz Ingo Senftleben
Party SPD AfD CDU
Last election 30 seats, 31.9% 11 seats, 12.2% 21 seats, 23.0%
Seats won 25 23 15
Seat change Decrease 5 Increase 12 Decrease 6
Popular vote 331,238 297,484 196,988
Percentage 26.2% 23.5% 15.6%
Swing Decrease 5.7pp Increase 11.3pp Decrease 7.4pp

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  Landtagsprojekt Brandenburg Ursula Nonnemacher by Olaf Kosinsky-1.jpg 16-03-10-Kathrin-Dannenberg RR27060.jpg 16-03-09-Péter-Vida RR26529.jpg
Leader Ursula Nonnemacher Kathrin Dannenberg Péter Vida
Party Green Left BVB/FW
Last election 6 seats, 6.2% 17 seats, 18.6% 3 seats, 2.7%
Seats won 10 10 5
Seat change Increase 4 Decrease 7 Increase 2
Popular vote 136,364 135,558 63,851
Percentage 10.8% 10.7% 5.0%
Swing Increase 4.6pp Decrease 7.9pp Increase 2.3pp

Landtagswahlkarte Brandenburg 2019.svg
Winning candidates in direct mandates

Minister-President before election

Dietmar Woidke
SPD

Elected Minister-President

Dietmar Woidke
SPD

After the election, the SPD formed a government with the CDU and Greens. Woidke was subsequently re-elected as Minister-President.

BackgroundEdit

Since German reunification, the SPD has been the strongest party in Brandenburg on a state level, and has held the office of Minister-President continuously.

The SPD and Left formed a coalition government after the 2009 state election, which was renewed after the 2014 state election. In the 2019 European Parliament election in Germany, AfD was the strongest party in Brandenburg on 19.9%, ahead of the CDU (18.0%) and SPD (17.2%).

Electoral systemEdit

In principle, the Landtag consists of 88 members. 44 are elected by plurality vote in single-member constituencies (direct mandates), and the remainder are filled by party-list proportional representation. The seats are distributed according to the largest remainder method (Hare-Niemeyer method). Only parties whose share of second votes exceeds the 5% electoral threshold or which have won a direct mandate (the "basic mandate clause") are allocated seats.[3] Overhang and leveling seats can expand the Landtag to a maximum size of 110 seats. This is detailed in the Brandenburg State Electoral Act.[4]

According to the state constitution and the state election law, the election date must be a Sunday or a public holiday, at the earliest 57 months and at the latest 60 months after the beginning of the election period. In 2019, the date was set for 1 September 2019.[3]

The minimum voting age is 16 years.

PartiesEdit

The table below lists parties represented in the 6th Landtag of Brandenburg.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2014 result
Votes (%) Seats
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy Dietmar Woidke 31.9%
30 / 88
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy Ingo Senftleben 23.0%
20 / 88
Linke The Left
Die Linke
Democratic socialism Kathrin Dannenberg 18.6%
17 / 88
AfD Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland
National conservatism Andreas Kalbitz 12.2%
11 / 88
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Green politics Ursula Nonnemacher 6.2%
6 / 88
BVB/FW Brandenburg United Civic Movements/Free Voters
Brandenburger Vereinigten Bürgerbewegungen/Freie Wähler
Regionalism Péter Vida 2.7%
3 / 88

Opinion pollsEdit

 

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
SPD CDU Linke AfD Grüne FDP BVB/FW Others Lead
2019 state election 1 Sep 2019 26.2 15.6 10.7 23.5 10.8 4.1 5.0 4.1 2.7
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 26–29 Aug 2019 1,653 22 16.5 14 21 14.5 5 4 3 1
Civey 31 Jul–28 Aug 2019 2,460 20.3 17.9 15.5 20.3 14.8 4.9 6.3 Tie
INSA 19–26 Aug 2019 1,019 21 17 15 21 14 5 5 2 Tie
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 19–22 Aug 2019 1,112 21 18 14 20 14 5 4 4 1
Infratest dimap 19–21 Aug 2019 1,002 22 18 15 22 12 5 4 2 Tie
Civey 16 Jul–13 Aug 2019 2,981 18.2 17.1 14.7 21.0 17.2 5.5 6.3 3.2
Forsa 25 Jul–5 Aug 2019 1,009 17 18 14 21 16 5 4 5 3
Civey 19 Jun–17 Jul 2019 2,895 17.2 16.3 16.9 21.3 15.1 5.2 8.0 4.1
INSA 24 Jun–1 Jul 2019 1,001 19 18 16 19 16 6 3 3 Tie
Civey 15 May–12 Jun 2019 3,007 21.4 16.3 19.5 19.6 12.0 4.3 6.9 1.8
Infratest dimap 3–6 Jun 2019 1,000 18 17 14 21 17 5 4 4 3
INSA 13–28 May 2019 1,011 19 20 18 20 12 5 3 3 Tie
2019 European election 26 May 2019 17.2 18.0 12.3 19.9 12.3 4.4 2.2[a] 13.7 1.9
Civey 19 Mar–16 Apr 2019 1,380 23.0 19.9 16.8 20.9 9.2 4.4 5.8 2.1
Infratest dimap 2–6 Apr 2019 1,000 22 20 16 19 12 5 6 2
Civey End Jan–22 Feb 2019 5,955 21.8 22.1 20.0 18.8 7.0 4.4 5.9 0.3
INSA 28 Jan–4 Feb 2019 1,006 21 21 17 19 10 5 4 3 Tie
Forsa 17–20 Dec 2018 1,005 20 19 17 20 12 5 7 Tie
pmg 19 Nov–6 Dec 2018 1,006 23 21 18 21 10 3 4 2
Infratest dimap 12–17 Sep 2018 1,000 23 21 17 23 7 5 4 Tie
INSA 10–17 Aug 2018 1,048 23 18 18 21 8 5 4 3 2
Infratest dimap 11–16 Apr 2018 1,000 23 23 17 22 7 4 4 Tie
Infratest dimap 7–11 Nov 2017 1,005 23 22 17 20 6 7 5 1
Forsa 7–9 Nov 2017 1,002 25 22 18 18 6 5 6 3
2017 federal election 24 Sep 2017 17.6 26.7 17.2 20.2 5.0 7.1 1.2[a] 5.1 6.5
Infratest dimap 15–19 Jun 2017 1,000 28 25 18 15 6 3 5 3
Forsa 9–13 Jan 2017 1,003 30 21 15 18 7 4 5 9
Infratest dimap 24–28 Nov 2016 1,000 30 25 17 16 6 6 5
Forsa 20–26 Sep 2016 1,001 30 17 17 20 6 4 6 10
Infratest dimap 19–23 May 2016 1,002 29 23 17 20 6 5 6
Forsa 14–17 Mar 2016 1,003 31 19 16 19 7 3 5 12
Forsa 9–17 Dec 2015 1,002 36 21 18 11 6 8 15
Infratest dimap 12–16 Nov 2015 1,000 33 23 19 13 6 6 10
Forsa Sep 2015 1,002 35 24 20 7 7 7 11
Infratest dimap 5–8 Feb 2015 1,000 34 25 19 10 5 7 9
Forsa Dec 2014 1,001 34 22 19 8 8 9 12
2014 state election 14 Sep 2014 31.9 23.0 18.6 12.2 6.2 1.5 2.7 5.5 8.9

ResultsEdit

By early afternoon, significantly more people had voted than at the same time in the 2014 election. According to the state election director, 31.3% of voters cast their ballots by 2:00 PM. At the time in 2014, the figure was only 22.4%.[5]

 
Party Votes % +/- Seats +/- Seats %
Social Democratic Party (SPD) 331,238 26.2  5.7 25  5 28.4
Alternative for Germany (AfD) 297,484 23.5  11.3 23  12 26.1
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 196,988 15.6  7.4 15  6 26.1
Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne) 136,364 10.8  4.6 10  4 11.4
The Left (Linke) 135,558 10.7  7.9 10  7 11.4
Brandenburg United Civic Movements/Free Voters (BVB/FW) 63,851 5.0  2.3 5  2 5.7
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 51,660 4.1  2.6 0 ±0 0
Human Environment Animal Protection 32,959 2.6  2.6 0 ±0 0
Pirate Party Germany (Piraten) 8,712 0.7  0.8 0 ±0 0
Others 10,292 0.8 0 ±0 0
Total 1,265,106 100.0 88 ±0
Voter turnout 61.3  13.4
Popular Vote
SPD
26.18%
AfD
23.51%
CDU
15.57%
B'90/GRÜNE
10.78%
DIE LINKE
10.72%
BVB/FW
5.05%
FDP
4.08%
TIER
2.61%
Other
1.50%
Landtag seats
SPD
28.41%
AfD
26.14%
CDU
17.05%
B'90/GRÜNE
11.36%
DIE LINKE
11.36%
BVB/FW
5.68%

Government formationEdit

The governing SPD and Die Linke both suffered losses, bringing an end to their coalition. Incumbent Minister-President Woidke (SPD) invited all parties except AfD to coalition negotiations as his party remained the largest bloc. The CDU expressed interest in joining a so-called "Kenya coalition" with SPD and Greens, which would have 50 seats, and reiterated their refusal to govern with AfD. Woidke confirmed he called CDU leader Senftleben on election day to begin discussions, but expressed reservations about the party's poor performance under pressure from the right. He also did not rule out the possibility of a red-red-green coalition with Die Linke and Greens, which would have a bare majority of 45 seats.[6] Greens leader Nonnemacher expressed willingness to participate in either coalition, but made it clear her party would bring its own policy goals to the table and refuse to merely prop up the existing red-red coalition.[7]

On November 16th, both the CDU and SPD voted in favor of a "Kenya coalition."[8] The Greens approved the coalition on the 18th; Woidke was duly voted in for his second term as Minister-President two days later by a count of 47 to 37 with 3 abstentions. The coalition commands 50 seats.[9][10]

NotesEdit

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ "Die nächsten Wahlen in Deutschland:". wahlrecht.de. 2018-09-14.
  2. ^ "Landtagswahlen | Wahlen Brandenburg". wahlen.brandenburg.de. Retrieved 2019-05-05.
  3. ^ a b "BRAVORS - Schnellsuche".
  4. ^ Brandenburgisches Landeswahlgesetz Fassung: 28. Januar 2004, Änderung: 11. Februar 2014
  5. ^ "Landtagswahl in Brandenburg: Wahlbeteiligung ist bisher deutlich höher als 2014". rbb24.de. Retrieved 1 September 2019.
  6. ^ "In Brandenburg ist eine Koalition aus SPD, CDU und Grünen wahrscheinlich". www.tagesspiegel.de (in German).
  7. ^ "Grüne nennen ihren Preis für Koalitionen". n-tv.de (in German).
  8. ^ "Kenia in Brandenburg: CDU stimmt klar für Koalition mit Rot-Grün". www.rnd.de (in German). Retrieved 2019-11-18.
  9. ^ "Brandenburg: Grüne stimmen für Kenia-Koalition: Landtagswahl Brandenburg 2019: Endgültiges Ergebnis". Spiegel Online. 18 November 2019.
  10. ^ "Brandenburg: Dietmar Woidke als Ministerpräsident wiedergewählt: Landtagswahl Brandenburg 2019: Endgültiges Ergebnis". Spiegel Online. 20 November 2019.

External linksEdit