2016 United States presidential election in Vermont

The 2016 United States presidential election in Vermont was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Vermont voters chose three electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders received unsolicited write-in votes.

2016 United States presidential election in Vermont

← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
Turnout67.95% Increase
  Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Bernie Sanders September 2015 cropped.jpg
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Bernie Sanders
(write-in)
Party Democratic Republican Independent
Home state New York New York Vermont
Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence none
Electoral vote 3 0 0
Popular vote 178,573 95,369 18,218
Percentage 55.72% 29.76% 5.68%

Vermont Presidential Election Results 2016.svg
County Results

President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Treemap of the popular vote by county.

Hillary Clinton easily won Vermont, regarded as one of the most progressive states in the country, with 55.7% of the vote,[1] a vote margin of 25.9% compared with the President Barack Obama's 35.6% vote margin in 2012.[2] Donald Trump received 29.8% of the vote and won only Essex County–the most rural and sparsely populated county in the state. He was the first Republican presidential candidate to win a county in Vermont since George W. Bush in 2004.

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders received 5.7% of the vote through write-ins, the highest write-in draft campaign percentage for a statewide presidential candidate in history.[3] Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, received 3.1%, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein received 2.1%.[4]

Vermont had once been the quintessential "Yankee Republican" state. From 1856 to 1988, it voted Republican in every election except Lyndon Johnson's 44-state landslide in 1964. However, it swung hard to Bill Clinton in 1992, and the Democrats have carried it without serious difficulty since then. Trump and George W. Bush are the only Republicans to win the White House without carrying Vermont.

Primary electionsEdit

On March 1, 2016, in the presidential primaries, Vermont voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian parties. Voters who were unaffiliated chose any 1 primary in which to vote.

Democratic primaryEdit

The 2016 Vermont Democratic primary took place on March 1 as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

On the same day, dubbed "Super Tuesday," Democratic primaries were held in 10 other states plus American Samoa, while the Republican Party held primaries in 11 states including their own Vermont primary.

As Sanders was an extremely popular favorite son, there was no campaign to speak of and all pledged delegates were given to Sanders, due to Clinton getting less than 15% of the popular vote. Sanders won every municipality in the state.

ResultsEdit

 
Democratic primary results by county.
  Bernie Sanders
Vermont Democratic primary, March 1, 2016
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Bernie Sanders 115,900 85.69% 16 6 22
Hillary Clinton 18,338 13.56% 0 4 4
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 282 0.21%
Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente 80 0.06%
Total blank votes 260 0.19%
Total write-ins 238 0.18%
Total spoiled votes 158 0.12%
Uncommitted N/A 0 0 0
Total 135,256 100% 16 10 26
Source: The Green Papers, Vermont Secretary of State

Republican primaryEdit

2016 Vermont Republican primary
 
← 2012 March 1, 2016 (2016-03-01) 2020 →
← TX
VA →
     
Candidate Donald Trump John Kasich
Home state New York Ohio
Delegate count 8 8
Popular vote 19,974 18,534
Percentage 32.34% 30.01%

     
Candidate Marco Rubio Ted Cruz
Home state Florida Texas
Delegate count 0 0
Popular vote 11,781 5,932
Percentage 19.08% 9.61%

 
Vermont results by county
  Donald Trump
  John Kasich
Vermont Republican primary, March 1, 2016
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 19,974 32.34% 8 0 8
John Kasich 18,534 30.01% 8 0 8
Marco Rubio 11,781 19.08% 0 0 0
Ted Cruz 5,932 9.61% 0 0 0
Ben Carson 2,551 4.13% 0 0 0
Jeb Bush (withdrawn) 1,106 1.79% 0 0 0
Rand Paul (withdrawn) 423 0.68% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 361 0.58% 0 0 0
Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) 212 0.34% 0 0 0
Rick Santorum (withdrawn) 164 0.27% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 0 0 0
Total: 61,756 100.00% 16 0 16
Source: The Green Papers

General electionEdit

With the heavy Democratic and Progressive presence in the state, the state was bypassed by the candidates during the General.

PredictionsEdit

Source Ranking As of
Los Angeles Times[5] Safe D November 6, 2016
CNN[6] Safe D November 4, 2016
Cook Political Report[7] Safe D November 7, 2016
Electoral-vote.com[8] Safe D November 8, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] Safe D November 7, 2016
Fox News[10] Safe D November 7, 2016

PollingEdit

Hillary Clinton won every poll pre-election by double digits. Interestingly, she only reached 50% in the last poll, leading 50% to 22%, which may indicate support for writing in Bernie Sanders or other third party candidates. The average of the final three polls showed Hillary Clinton leading Trump 48% to 22%. [11]

ResultsEdit

2016 United States presidential election in Vermont[12][13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Hillary Clinton 178,573 55.72%
Republican Donald Trump 95,369 29.76%
Independent Bernie Sanders (write-in) 18,218 5.68%
Libertarian Gary Johnson 10,078 3.14%
Green Jill Stein 6,758 2.11%
Reform Rocky De La Fuente 1,063 0.33%
Republican John Kasich (write-in) 831 0.26%
Independent Evan McMullin (write-in) 641 0.20%
Liberty Union Gloria La Riva 327 0.10%
Constitution Darrell Castle (write-in) 63 0.02%
Socialist

Mimi Soltysik (write-in) 3 <0.01%
Write-in Other Write-in 3,143 1.00%
n/a No Name/None of the Above 257 0.09%
n/a Spoiled/blank 5,400 1.69%
Total votes 320,467 100.00%
Democratic win
Extended content
Other Write-ins Candidate Votes Percentage
Republican Mike Pence (write-in) 305 0.09%
Republican Paul Ryan (write-in) 209 0.06%
Republican Mitt Romney (write-in) 122 0.04%
Republican Marco Rubio (write-in) 93 0.03%
Republican Jeb Bush (write-in) 79 0.03%
Republican John McCain (write-in) 76 0.03%
Republican Ted Cruz (write-in) 63 0.02%
Libertarian Ron Paul (write-in) 25 0.02%
Republican Colin Powell (write-in) 25 0.02%
Democratic Martin O'Malley (write-in) 6 <0.01%
n/a Write-in (Other) 2,140 0.72%

Results by countyEdit

County Clinton Votes Trump Votes Others Votes Total
Addison 59.0% 11,219 27.8% 5,297 13.2% 2,515 19,031
Bennington 54.9% 9,539 34.1% 5,925 11.0% 1,917 17,381
Caledonia 45.8% 6,445 39.3% 5,534 14.9% 2,095 14,074
Chittenden 65.7% 54,814 22.3% 18,601 12.0% 10,001 83,416
Essex 34.8% 1,019 51.5% 1,506 13.7% 400 2,925
Franklin 43.7% 9,351 40.9% 8,752 15.5% 3,308 21,411
Grand Isle 51.0% 2,094 36.2% 1,487 12.9% 528 4,109
Lamoille 56.7% 7,241 28.0% 3,570 15.3% 1,951 12,762
Orange 51.5% 7,541 34.2% 5,007 14.3% 2,101 14,649
Orleans 43.0% 5,185 42.8% 5,159 14.1% 1,702 12,046
Rutland 46.0% 13,635 42.1% 12,479 11.8% 3,501 29,615
Washington 59.8% 18,594 25.7% 7,993 14.5% 4,499 31,086
Windham 63.4% 14,340 24.1% 5,454 12.6% 2,840 22,634
Windsor 58.7% 17,556 28.8% 6,805 12.6% 3,767 28,128

Counties that swung from Democratic to RepublicanEdit

See alsoEdit

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ "2016 Presidential General Election Results - Vermont".
  2. ^ Editors (August 1, 2017). "Vermont Election Results 2016". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2020-01-11.CS1 maint: extra text: authors list (link)
  3. ^ Weigel, David (November 17, 2016). "More than 18,000 Vermonters wrote in Bernie Sanders for president". The Washington Post. Retrieved 2020-01-11.
  4. ^ "Vermont Election Night Results". sec state vt us/. Retrieved 2016-11-12.
  5. ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. 2016-11-06. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  6. ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  7. ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  8. ^ "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  9. ^ Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
  10. ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. 2016-11-07. Retrieved 2016-11-13.
  11. ^ Editors (2017). "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Vermont: Trump vs. Clinton". www.realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved 2020-09-15.CS1 maint: extra text: authors list (link)
  12. ^ "Presidential Election Statement of Votes". Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved November 26, 2016.
  13. ^ http://www.thegreenpapers.com/G16/VT The Green Papers
  14. ^ "Here's a map of the US counties that flipped to Trump from Democrats". www.cnbc.com. Retrieved 2020-09-01.

External linksEdit